0 Finite - time singularity in the dynamics of the world population , economic and financial indices . Running title : Finite - time singularity in world population growth

نویسنده

  • Didier Sornette
چکیده

Contrary to common belief, both the Earth’s human population and its economic output have grown faster than exponential for most of the known history. These growth rates are compatible with a spontaneous singularity occuring at the same critical time 2052± 10 signaling an abrupt transition to a new regime. In support, a multivariate analysis coupling population, capital, R&D and technology shows that an “explosion” in the population can occur even though the isolated dynamics do not exhibit it. Close to the mathematical singularity, finite-size effects will smoothen the transition. Possible scenarios for the cross-over and the new regime are discussed. JEL Classification: O -Economic Development, Technological Change and Growth O00 General J1 Demographic Economics ∗corresponding author

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تاریخ انتشار 2008